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Policy brief  2021

Tying Their Hands? How Petroleum Contract Terms May Limit Governments’ Climate Policy Flexibility

Have producer countries begun to modify petroleum contract terms in response to climate change and energy transition risks? This briefing reviewed 34 contracts and model contracts from 11 countries, signed or issued since the Paris Agreement. This review focused on stabilization, arbitration, and force majeure clauses.

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Report  2021

Risky Bet: National Oil Companies in the Energy Transition

As the energy transition affects the future of oil and gas, the room for maneuver of many NOCs will shrink, and the opportunity costs of investing in expensive projects will rise.

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Report  2020

Fostering Resilience in Emerging Oil Producers

This paper draws from a fascinating series of virtual meetings the New Producers Group started in March 2020 to understand how the double crisis of Covid and the oil market crash would impact national aspirations for the petroleum sector. The paper looks at those impacts, lays out some strategies for crisis response (legal challenges, managing oil companies, communications), draws on scenarios for longer term transition impacts and reflects on what policies would help these countries be resilient in the face of the deep change the petroleum sector is undergoing.

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Event summary  2020

Annual Meeting 2020

The 8th Annual Meeting of the New Producers Group took place from 1–3 December 2020, with a focus on fostering resilience in emerging producers. The meeting considered how new producers can adapt their approaches in light of the shocks from the pandemic, and the prospects that the global energy transition will precipitate significant changes in oil and gas markets.

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Video  2020

Post-pandemic outlook for the oil and gas industry

Atul Arya from IHS Markit returned to the Fostering Resilience in Crisis series to give us an updated outlook for the energy sector post-Covid. This meeting was under Chatham House Rule. Watch the highlights in the below video. The full recording is available on the members’ platform. Highlights of the […]

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Article  2020

Should Sovereign Wealth Funds Invest to Achieve the Paris Agreement?

Almost all the government owners of sovereign wealth funds are signatories to the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet, despite this commitment, the world is not on course to meet these goals. There has been a significant effort, however, by regulators and investors to better integrate climate change considerations into financial markets and ensure investment is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goals. This article argues that sovereign wealth funds should be at the vanguard of these efforts by investors to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.

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Video  2020

Finance and the energy transition

For this panel discussion on the role of finance in the energy transition, the New Producers Group brought together a range of different actors in the investment community, from banking and international finance institutions to private equity capital and fund managers. We asked them how they perceive the relative risk of oil, gas and renewables in emerging markets in light of Covid and the oil price slump. This meeting of the Fostering Resilience in Crisis series was on the record.

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Article  2020

Africa’s New Oil and Gas Producers Must Prepare for More Disappointment in the Post-Coronavirus Era

The crash in oil and gas prices, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the slump in economic activity, has dealt a blow to the plans and public finances of major oil- and gas-producing countries. But a group of countries in sub-Saharan Africa once designated as “prospective producers” are facing a different challenge.

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Video  2020

Impact of Covid and the oil price crash on the local content policies

The risks associated with global supply chains are more prominent as a result of the crisis. But there are also risks associated with local suppliers. Will international oil companies’ own commercial and strategic interests drive them to invest more in developing the capabilities of local suppliers? How can governments reduce the vulnerability of their national suppliers to pandemic risks? This meeting in the Fostering Resilience in Crisis series was under Chatham House Rule.

Socio-economic returns Find out more

Video  2020

The impact of Covid-19 and the oil market crash on the pace and course of the energy transitions

This meeting in the New Producers Group series Fostering Resilience in Crisis examined the impact of the oil price crash and the Covid pandemic on the pace and course of the energy transition, with a specific focus on the impact on oil and gas vs. energy alternatives. Two scenarios helped structure the discussion.

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